An application of Rumor Propagation In Google trends

Mr. K.L.M. Silva, Prof. R.P.K.C.M. Ranasinghe

Abstract


Daley and Kendle’s pioneering mathematical basis for modelling rumor propagation around 1965 has paved a strong platform for researchers to come up with new generalizations for practical scenarios of rumor spreading in social networks. In this study, we use a generalization of original DK model, Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler (ISS) model to analyze the cricket related searches in Sri Lanka on Google.

The secondary data used for the study were obtained from Google trends for a five-year period from 2012 to 2017, targeting the three t20 matches held during the period. We introduce two algorithms on Maple mathematical software to estimate the parameters of the ISS model numerically.

We observe that the way people search on web about cricket is roughly analogous to spreading a rumour and forecasting is better when modelling with most recent data than considering more data back in time and we also find that the predicting accuracy is significantly equal of the two models built considering the data in 2012 and 2014.


Keywords


Rumour propagation, ISS model, Google trends, Cricket

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References


Goffman, W & Newill, VA 1964, ‘Generalization of epidemic theory: an application to the transmission of ideas’, Nature, vol. 204, no. 4955, pp. 225–228.

Daley, DJ & Kendall, DG ‘Epidemics and rumours’, Nature, vol. 204, no. 4963, pp. 1118-1964.

Boiroju, Naveen & Yerukala, Ramu & Rao, Manneni & Malkareddy, Krishna. (2011). A bootstrap test for equality of mean absolute errors. 6.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v44.2.6075

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