Analyse Multimodèle du Régime de Change, de la Politique Monétaire et de la Stabilité Macroéconomique à Madagascar : Approche Empirique par VAR, SVAR et Markov-Switching.

Abstract

Madagascar’s macroeconomic instability is characterized by exchange rate fluctuations, volatile inflation, and heightened exposure to external economic shocks. This study presents a multimodel analysis to assess the impact of exchange rate regimes and monetary policies on the country’s economic stability. The econometric approach combines Vector Autoregression (VAR), Structural VAR (SVAR), and Markov-Switching (MS) models to examine interactions between exchange rates, inflation, nominal GDP, and foreign reserves over the period 1960-2023. The findings indicate that expansionary policies promote growth but exert significant inflationary pressure, while interest rate hikes help control inflation but slow economic activity. The transition to a volatile regime significantly increases the risk of monetary crises. These conclusions suggest that an intermediate exchange rate regime, combined with prudent monetary policy, could enhance Madagascar’s macroeconomic stability.