Coal Supplier Selection for Energy Management Optimization: Case Study in a Coal-Fired Power Plant using integrated Analytical Hierarcy Process and Monte Carlo Simulation

Muhammad Vieno Metha Werdatama, Berkah Fajar, Asep Yoyo Wardaya

Abstract


Coal supply management decision, especially in supplier selection and receiving strategy, plays a crucial role in the efficiency and resilience of primary energy source for a coal-fired power plant (PLTU). Suppliers’ commitment, logistic disruptions, and other risks present uncertainty in the decision-making process. This research proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model methodology with an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo simulation (AHP-MC) approach for coal suppliers’ selection and receiving strategy optimization that considers uncertainty in the energy planning development for PLTU Pelabuhan Ratu, West Jawa - Indonesia. The AHP model analysis aims to determine the optimal coal supplier selection based on criteria such as price, coal quality, supply delivery reliability, and coal receiving strategy through order management and forward contracts. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used as a simulation for criteria laden with uncertainty in the coal supply chain, such as coal quantity and quality to coal reserve stocks. The instrumentation analysis uses Expert Choice 11 software for AHP modeling of coal supplier selection, and Microsoft Excel with add-ins Crystal Ball for Monte Carlo simulation and Log-Hub for routine demand forecasting simulation based on historical data of coal supply chain management at PLTU Pelabuhan Ratu. The result shows that the coal demand data trend is distributed in minimum extreme pattern. The optimum point of demand is expected by 338.6 thousand ton which lead the productivity of electricity generation about 72,52% of its maximum capacity. The demand of coal is highly recommended to be supplied by 9 top priority of the chosen suppliers based on AHP model. The model proposed is potentially 4.40% more efficient than current ongoing coal demand in term of sustainability of electricity supply management. The output and contribution of this research are expected to be input as an alternative model for coal supply management decision optimization, increasing production system development in the energy sector and energy efficiency at PLTU Pelabuhan Ratu

Keywords


coal supply, energy management, AHP, supplier selection, coal-fired power plant

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v45.1.6323

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