Estimating The Causes of Motorcycle Accidents Using Logistic Regression

Manoja Rasanjali Senaviratna, T.M.J.A. Cooray

Abstract


Ever increasing road accidents and traffic flow is a heavy burden to a developing country like Sri Lanka. Among road accidents, motorcycle accidents involved a high rate of accidents. Therefore, it is essential to find solutions and reduce motorcycle accident deaths and injuries. The objective of this study is to estimate the causes of motorcycle accidents in Sri Lanka. Secondary data used in this study from 2014 to 2016 were acquired from the Traffic Police headquarters, Colombo in Sri Lanka. A total number of 32926 motorcycle accidents were included in the analysis. Two third of the data (21950) was used to develop the model, and the remaining 1/3 of data (10976) was used to validate the model. Factors considered in the study were the gender of motorcyclist, validity of license, accident cause, alcohol test, time of the accident, weekday/weekend, road surface, weather condition, light condition, location and age of motorcyclist. The severity of accidents was categorized as grievous and non-grievous accidents. Chi-square test of independence has detected that alcohol test is not significantly associated with the severity of accidents.  Binary logistic regression is applied to model the severity of road accidents due to the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.587 which means the fitted model classifies the group significantly better than by chance. The fitted model is correctly predicted 79.6%  of the validation data which is greater than the predictive power of the baseline model 56.6%. Results revealed that location type, time, age of driver, accident cause and gender have a significant effect on the severity of accidents. Moreover, Aggressive or negligent driving, driving on straight road, drive by male motorcyclists, driving in daytime have a high chance to be a grievous accident. These findings can aid in modifying laws and establishing preventive approaches in Sri Lanka. 


Keywords


motorcycle accidents; logistic regression; severity of accident; grievous accidents; non-grievous accidents

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v29.2.3785

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