Régionalisation Multivariée Des Conditions Climatiques Locales Dans Le Grand Sud De Madagascar Par ACP Et K-Means

Omar Naveroson RABENOMENISOANIRAINY, Honoré RAZAFIMANDIMBY, Jean Eugène RANDRIANANTENAINA, Adolphe Andriamanga RATIARISON

Abstract


Cette étude propose une régionalisation climatique multivariée du Grand Sud de Madagascar à partir de six variables : précipitations (P), température de l’air (T), évaporation (E), rayonnement solaire (RS), vitesse du vent (V) et humidité spécifique (HUSS). Les données mensuelles couvrent 1978-2024 (564 mois) sur une grille de 25 × 25 pixels. Après masque spatial, 400 pixels sont conservés. Les séries sont harmonisées, agrégées annuellement puis standardisées temporellement pixel par pixel. Les six matrices de 400 × 47 sont concaténées dans l’ordre P | T | E | RS | V | HUSS pour former une matrice de 400 × 282. L’ACP retient 12 composantes expliquant 81,02 % de la variance cumulée. Le nombre de classes est testé de k = 2 à 8. La méthode du coude et la silhouette moyenne convergent vers k = 3 ; pour k = 3, la silhouette moyenne vaut 0,3091. Le K-means distingue alors une zone sèche, une zone intermédiaire et une zone humide. Les profils physiques montrent un gradient cohérent des précipitations et de l’humidité spécifique, du cluster 2 vers le cluster 3. Cette régionalisation constitue une base reproductible pour l’analyse spatiale de la sécheresse dans le Grand Sud de Madagascar.

Keywords


sécheresse ; ERA5-Land ; classification spatiale ; humidité spécifique ; anomalies standardisées ; variabilité climatique.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v59.1.8651

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