Analyse Multivariée Par EOF Des Facteurs Climatiques Influençant La Sécheresse : Précipitations, SST, OLR Et Température Au Sud-Ouest De Madagascar

Aimé Rivesty ANDRIANARIMANANA, Honoré RAZAFIMANDIMBY, Chrysologue Jacques RATSIMAVO, Jean Eugène RANDRIANANTENAINA, Sahoby LALAOHARISOA, Adolphe Andriamanga RATIARISON

Abstract


The EOF analysis of climate data (1979–2018) in the southwestern part of Madagascar reveals three major scales of climate variability (seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal) influencing droughts. The spatial modes exhibit characteristic structures, including a generalized ocean cooling (EOF1-SST), a convection contrast between coastal and inland areas (EOF2-OLR), and a spatial opposition of rainfall regimes. The temporal components highlight distinct climate cycles at 1 year (seasonal), 4–8 years (interannual variability), and approximately 20 years (multi-decadal scale). Strong correlations between oceanic (SST) and atmospheric (temperature, precipitation) parameters emphasize the importance of ocean-atmosphere interactions in drought dynamics, paving the way for the development of climate monitoring tools.


Keywords


EOF, drought, SST, OLR, climate variability.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.52155/ijpsat.v50.1.7116

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